Ontario Real Estate in 2025–Early 2026: A Market Reset You Can Feel

Ontario’s real estate market has quietly shifted. After years of rapid price growth, tight inventory, and urgency-driven decisions, 2025 marked a reset, and early 2026 data shows that shift continuing across much of the province.

This isn’t a crash. It’s a recalibration. And understanding what that means both provincially and locally is key to making smart real estate decisions right now.

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What We’re Seeing Across Ontario

Across many Ontario markets, several consistent trends have emerged:More listings, more choice
Inventory levels have increased compared to the past few years, giving buyers more options and time to make decisions. This has reduced pressure and brought negotiation back into the conversation.Prices have softened from recent highs
Average and median prices in many Ontario communities have come down modestly from peak levels. While this has caused uncertainty for some homeowners, it has also opened doors for buyers who were previously priced out.A slower, more balanced pace
Homes are taking longer to sell, and pricing strategy matters more than ever. The market is rewarding preparation, realistic expectations, and strong marketing  not just timing.In short: Ontario has moved into a more balanced, data-driven market, where informed decisions matter more than momentum.

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What This Looks Like in Guelph Right Now

Guelph Market Snapshot January 2026

Sales Activity
• 74 homes sold
• Down 16.9% compared to January 2025Inventory & Supply
• 433 active listings
• Up 33.6% year-over-year
• 5.9 months of inventory, indicating a more balanced marketPricing
• Average price: $745,770 (↓ 5.0% year-over-year)
• Median price: $727,500 (↓ 9.1% year-over-year)Market Pace
• Median days on market: 35.5 days
• Sale-to-list price ratio: 97.9%

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What These Numbers Really Mean

This data tells a clear story:• Homes are still selling, but buyers are more selective
• Sellers need strong pricing and strategy, not hope
• Buyers finally have time, choice, and leverageCompared to the intense conditions of 2021–2022, today’s market rewards clarity, preparation, and local insight.

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Why Local Data Matters More Than Ever

City-wide averages only tell part of the story.Different neighbourhoods, price ranges, and property types are performing very differently even within the same city. A townhouse, a detached home, and a condo are often experiencing three different markets at once.That’s why understanding your specific area matters far more than headlines!!

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Want Data for Your Neighbourhood or City?

If you’d like:
• A neighbourhood-specific breakdown for Guelph
• Market stats for Kitchener, Cambridge , Fergus, Elora , Mississauga or Center Wellington 
• A custom snapshot for your street, condo building, or price rangeReach out and I’ll send you the full report tailored to what you want to know. No pressure:) Just clear, local data to help you make confident real estate decisions.